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SEASONAL FUTURE DEVELOPMENT

ELECTRICITY UK BASELOAD

UK NBP GAS

Energy explained - EnergyIntel Energy Buying & Markets

Trader Insight

Near term prices fell early in the week as NBP DA contract collapsed, losing more than half of its value over the two trading sessions, on the 9th and 12th May. The combination of curbed demand from warmer weather, constraints on IUK exports, and healthy supply intensified the worries that UK storage will not be able to absorb the oversupply. However, the halt of Russian transit via Sokhranivka border point on Wednesday reinforced the strong bullish concerns. The Ukrainian GTSO declared force majeure on the 10th May as the part of GTS facilities located in the occupied territories makes it impossible to transport the gas. GTSO offered additional capacity at Sudzha but Gazprom denied an increasing supply via Sudzha. Around 255Gwh/d was flowing via Sokhranivka prior to flows stopping on Wednesday. The impact was seen in lower flows via Ukraine. On the 11th May, Russia sanctioned several Gazprom’s subsidiary companies in Europe. This raised concerns that Gazprom might not be able to use part of the Yamal-Europe pipeline in Poland and supply under the some existing contracts. For example, sanctioned Wingas has a contract with Gazprom for 22bcm. Power is largely following gas with some discounts in day ahead pricing being offset by a lack of wind.

COMMODITY PRICE TABLES

PRICE FORWARD CURVES

POWER FORWARD CURVE

GAS FORWARD CURVE

CARBON & OIL PRICES

Energy explained - EnergyIntel Energy Buying & Markets

Trader Insight

Brent Crude Oil continues to hold around the $105 per barrel level as no further significant supply is coming on stream due to lower pricing. Carbon markets have ticked up slightly, pushing up power prices on the curve. They are currently sitting at £85/tnCO2 and the EUA contract is at €83/tnCO2.

COLIN GORDON

HEAD OF TRADING & RISK MANAGEMENT

Outlook for the week ahead…

The market, especially in the near term, remains sensitive to the interconnection between the UK and Europe, leading to downside opportunities, but given the lack of movement on the battlefield in Ukraine and limited further European steps to reduce the supply of Russian energy, we have seen more stable prices as a result. It rests again on the politicians to change this status quo in order to exert further pressure on the other side with energy clearly being the key weapon.

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