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SEASONAL FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
ELECTRICITY UK BASELOAD
UK NBP GAS
Gas and Power prices continued to fall this week, with the power curve falling to new post crisis lows right through to and including Winter 25. Front season Summer 24 gas also made new lows, breaking the 100p/th level for the first time post crises, while the next three seasons, out to and including Winter 25, are at or approaching the June lows.
For both commodities Summer 26 prices onwards, have retained some of the gains from the bounce that happened after the lows were hit in June, as the likelihood of current conflicts being resolved and other geo-political risks keeps risk premiums on future dated contracts.
The fall in prices has happened during a cold snap where day ahead prices stayed largely stable, kept in check by very healthy supply fundamentals, while both gas and power demand remain well below pre-crisis averages, especially industrial demand, and this has been further aided by forecasts for seasonal normal temperatures through to mid-January.
COMMODITY PRICE TABLES
PRICE FORWARD CURVES
POWER FORWARD CURVE
GAS FORWARD CURVE
CARBON & OIL PRICES
The OPEC+ group of oil producers met on Thursday and agreed to combine voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day for the first quarter of 2024, with 1.3mbpd of those cuts an extension of existing cuts.
Fears of further interest rate rises in the West are receding; however growth outlook is worsening, weighing on prices. Overall prices are down week on week, falling below the $80 per barrel mark currently trading at $78.60/bbl.
UK Carbon has had 6 consecutive days of losses and is back at last month’s lows at just above £37/tnCO2 not far off the all-time lows of £33.50/tnCO2. While the EU contract is also down, holding just above €70/tnCO2 with the September 2022 lows of €67.11/tnCO2 in sight.
HEAD OF TRADING & RISK MANAGEMENT
Outlook for the week ahead…
As we continue through winter with relatively mild weather and healthy supply, short term cold snaps aside, we are now seeing the effect of this at last feeding through to 2024 and 2025 dated contracts. Summer 24, Winter 24 and Summer 25 contracts are still trading at premiums to average day ahead prices seen in summer just gone, and so far this winter implies there is still plenty of room for prices to ease. Barring external shocks, that is the pattern we expect to see continue.