Get a clear view of gas and power prices with our Wholesale Energy Markets Dashboard
Track wholesale energy market movements and explore the latest pricing trends to help inform your business’s energy purchasing decisions.
Our Managing Energy Trading Positions guide explains what Energy Traders look for when making energy purchasing decisions on behalf of businesses.
Stay ahead of the energy market
Get our weekly energy market insight, with the latest wholesale price movements, market commentary and outlook delivered straight to your inbox.
Wholesale Electricity and Gas Prices:
Seasonal Future Development
Electricity UK Baseload
UK NBP Gas
Trader Insight
Trader commentary updated 27/10/2026
Near- and mid-term UK gas and power contracts surged across the last 7 days as Houthi attacks on Saudi export infrastructure, an unclosing storage deficit and Asian competition for LNG drove successive conflict-driven highs. NBP November-26 settled at 238.00 p/therm last night against 209.00 p/therm at the close on the 20th of October, a rise of 14%, with Q1-27 moving from 210.20 to 236.90 p/therm and Summer-27 from 161.50 to 179.50. Dutch TTF broke above €90.00/MWh for the first time since late 2022, since climbing through €95.00. UK baseload power mirrored it, November-26 settling at £189.50/MWh against £165.90/MWh and Summer-27 at £134.00/MWh against £125.50/MWh. That run paused this morning, November-26 under 237.00 p/therm and January-27 offered below 240.00, both curves peaking at January-27 before falling away steeply.
Houthi forces claimed strikes on Saudi Arabia’s 1,200-kilometre East-West pipeline, an Aramco facility at Yanbu and the Rabigh refinery over the weekend, and its pumping stations again on Monday the 26th. It routes barrels around a closed Hormuz. Against it, Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish security chiefs met Iranian leaders in Tehran on Monday, as Washington moved a third carrier group into the Gulf.
Storage is the structural problem. European stocks rose under 3 TWh in the seven days to the 24th and remain 17%, or 170 TWh, below the ten-year average, injections all but stopped. Norwegian flows recovered into Monday, up 8 mcm/d to 80 mcm/d, though NATO tracked Russian submarines rehearsing cable sabotage off Norway last month, in the waters carrying Britain’s interconnectors. Ukraine, at 37% full after strikes on Poltava production, will compete for the same European gas molecules into Q1-27.
Commodity Price Tables
Electricity (Power) and Gas Price Forward Curves
Power Forward Curve
Gas Forward Curve
Carbon and Oil Prices
Trader Insight
Brent settled at $115.80/bbl on Monday against $108.80/bbl on the 20th of October, a gain of 6.5%. The rally is not built on speculative length: money managers bought just 7 million barrels across the six main petroleum contracts in the week to the 20th, net length well below its 2025 peaks even as prices reached four-month highs, so no crowded long stands ready to cushion a bearish headline. The physical market moved the other way, spot Brent’s premium over December futures collapsing from $33.50/bbl on the 2nd of October to $6.50/bbl on the 20th, the autumn’s prompt squeeze unwinding as futures set new highs. Russian refinery runs stay impaired at an estimated 3.8 to 4.0 million barrels a day against 5.5 million normally, with September net diesel exports from Russia and the Middle East more than 60% lower year on year and diesel near twice the crude price. UKA December-26 rose from £63.50/tCO₂ to £65.50/tCO₂ and EUA December-26 from €85.50/tCO₂ to €88.20/tCO₂, both only late. Inspired’s analysts note the negative gas-carbon correlation leaves higher gas failing to support EUAs.
Energy market outlook for the week ahead…
The week’s tension is whether diplomacy removes risk premium faster than the supply deficit restores it. Macro attention falls on Wednesday’s FOMC decision, a hold priced at 3.75% to 4.00%. The bearish case rests on Tehran diplomacy and Russia-Ukraine talks expected in mid-November. The bullish case is harder to dismiss, storage 17% below normal and Europe’s spot exposure leaving it hostage to Gulf headlines, an analyst quoted by Montel seeing European gas near €200/MWh should a cold winter pull cargoes from Asia. Israel votes today and the US midterms follow on the 3rd of November, President Trump having floated renewed strikes on Iran once they pass. Domestically, NESO has wind averaging 21 GW today but under 7 GW on Thursday, a 5,029 MW low at 06:00 into the morning peak, while curtailment of 8,912 MW feeds BSUoS costs reaching clients into 2027. For UK energy buyers, the risk premium now sits in Q1-27 and Summer-27 rather than the prompt, and diplomatic progress is more likely to offer a brief window to cover than a sustained retreat.
Take a look at our energy procurement options.
Elevate your energy procurement with tailored strategies, expert support, and a broad supplier network for stable costs and protection from volatility.
FAQ: Understanding the Wholesale Energy Market
What is the wholesale energy market?
The wholesale energy market is the marketplace where electricity and natural gas are traded before being supplied to end users. It is made up of generators, suppliers, traders, large industrial consumers and financial participants buying and selling energy through exchanges and bilateral contracts across multiple time horizons – from same-day delivery through to contracts several years ahead.
Wholesale markets exist to balance supply and demand efficiently while allowing participants to manage price risk. The prices established within these markets ultimately underpin the retail energy costs paid by businesses and consumers.
Why do wholesale energy prices change?
Wholesale energy prices are driven by the constant balancing of supply, demand and market risk. At the most fundamental level, prices rise when the market perceives energy to be less available or more difficult to secure and fall when supply is considered comfortable relative to demand.
A wide range of factors influence this dynamic, including weather conditions, renewable generation output, gas storage levels, infrastructure outages, economic activity and global commodity markets. Prices are also heavily shaped by expectations. Energy markets continuously price in future risks such as geopolitical uncertainty, seasonal demand shifts and potential supply constraints.
Why are winter seasons priced higher than summer seasons?
Winter energy contracts are typically priced at a premium because the market expects higher demand during colder months. Heating requirements increase gas consumption significantly, while electricity demand also rises due to lighting and peak usage pressures.
At the same time, the system often has less operational flexibility during winter. Renewable generation can become more variable, reserve margins tighten, and any disruption to supply has a greater impact on market stability.
What can cause volatility in energy prices?
Energy markets are highly sensitive to both physical disruptions and shifts in market sentiment. Volatility typically occurs when there is uncertainty around the balance between supply and demand, particularly when spare capacity within the system is limited.
Common drivers include extreme weather events, unplanned generation outages, low renewable output, gas infrastructure issues, storage concerns and geopolitical developments. Markets can also react sharply to changes in regulation, macroeconomic data or shifts in global commodity pricing.
Because electricity and gas systems must remain balanced in real time, even relatively small disruptions can trigger disproportionate price movements, particularly in short-term trading markets.
What does seasonal future development mean?
Seasonal future development refers to how wholesale energy prices are expected to evolve across future seasonal delivery periods, typically comparing summer and winter contracts over multiple years ahead.
These seasonal pricing structures reflect the market’s view of future supply and demand fundamentals, infrastructure developments, storage availability, generation mix changes and broader macroeconomic conditions.
Monitoring seasonal market development helps businesses understand how future risk is being priced into the market and supports more informed procurement and budgeting decisions.
What does price forward curves mean?
A forward curve is a graphical representation of wholesale energy prices for future delivery periods, ranging from months to several years ahead. It illustrates how the market currently values future energy supply over time.
Forward curves are one of the most important tools used in energy trading and procurement because they provide insight into market expectations, pricing structure and risk premiums. They are widely used to support budgeting, hedging strategies, contract timing decisions and risk management planning.
Rather than predicting future prices with certainty, forward curves represent the market’s consensus view of value at a specific point in time.
Why are prices generally lower further out?
Energy prices are often lower further out on the forward curve because near-term markets carry greater immediate risk and uncertainty. Short-term pricing is more exposed to factors such as weather events and supply disruptions.
Longer-dated contracts tend to reflect more stable underlying market assumptions, where short-term volatility becomes diluted over time. In effect, the market typically assigns a higher risk premium to prompt and near-term delivery periods because the operational and pricing uncertainty is much more acute.
This is why businesses frequently see higher pricing closer to delivery, particularly during periods of market stress or tight system conditions.
What do ‘commodity’ and ‘non-commodity’ costs mean?
Commodity costs represent the wholesale cost of the underlying gas or electricity being purchased within the energy market. This is the traded market value of the energy itself.
Non-commodity costs are the additional charges applied to deliver and manage energy across the system. These can include network and transmission charges, balancing costs, environmental and policy levies, capacity market costs and supplier operational charges.
Over recent years, non-commodity charges have become an increasingly significant proportion of total business energy costs, meaning effective procurement strategies now require visibility and management across both commodity and non-commodity elements of the bill.