Managing Energy Positions: What an Energy Trader looks for

When it comes to securing an energy contract, a key consideration is what type of contract your business needs. And although we offer all types of contracts, we recommend flexible energy contracts for a lot of our clients. That’s because when an Energy Trader adopts a flexible purchasing strategy, they can make all the difference when it comes to optimising energy costs and mitigating risks.

But what is it that an energy trader looks for to determine the best time to manage positions? Well, there are three main areas, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and risk management.

Fundamental analysis

Energy traders are constantly monitoring the supply and demand of gas and power. This helps to determine if there are any existing or future factors that could have a direct impact on the supply and cost of energy. With fundamental analysis, an energy trader will look at:

Oil and Carbon Markets: Prices of gas and power in the UK can be influenced by the movements of the oil and carbon markets. Tracking the markets provides critical insights into energy pricing. 

Power Station and Gas Pipeline Outages: Planned and unplanned outages of power stations and gas pipelines can significantly drive market prices up, so it’s important for traders to monitor these outages and assess the risk to contracts.

Currency Markets: As import costs are influenced by the strength of the pound, energy traders keep an eye on currency markets to assess how exchange rates affect energy prices. 

Weather Forecasts: Short, medium, and long-term weather forecasts are monitored to predict future energy demand, which can influence pricing. In fact, it’s probably one of the biggest drivers of prices. 

LNG Cargo Schedules: Keeping track of LNG cargo schedules into the UK and Europe helps traders stay informed about potential changes in supply and pricing.

Economic News: As well as the global factors that influence oil prices and hence UK energy prices, anything else that affects the economy will have an effect on energy prices, where future demand is based on expectations about future economic activity.

Technical Analysis

In addition to fundamental analysis, energy traders use technical analysis to understand price movements and market trends. The key areas of technical analysis include:

Detecting Price Patterns: Energy traders study price charts to identify any patterns that can be used to time trades effectively.

Momentum Indicators: By tracking the strength of buyers and sellers in the market, energy traders gain insights into market sentiment and momentum. 

Support and Resistance Levels: Marking key price levels helps energy traders recognise areas where prices are likely to change direction.

Trend Monitoring: Identifying trends in prices enables energy traders to make more accurate predictions about future price movements.